NORFOLK, Va. — When I started as a professional meteorologist in 1980, long-range hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) went out three days, or 72 hours. It would be over 20 ...

As Hurricane Ian bore down on Florida, normally reliable computer forecast models couldn’t agree on where the killer storm would land. But government meteorologists are now figuring out what went ...

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on — and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a ...

Soon after the midterm elections, we began our regular process of evaluating how FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts performed. We quickly discovered an error: We were using out-of-date data for one important ...

Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, weather forecasts, even with ever improving numerical weather prediction models, eventually lose all skill. Meteorologists have a strong desire to better ...

It's a staple of every hurricane season: the forecast "cone of uncertainty," which warns the public of the projected path of a tropical depression, storm or hurricane. But there are some important ...

The Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast just shifted slightly, but it’s not because of anything that happened in politics. Rather, it’s because ...

Google DeepMind, a London-based AI research lab, has been in the business of machine learning-based weather forecasting for several years, but back in June announced a new experimental AI model ...