The entropy score of an observed outcome that has been given a probability forecast p is defined to be -log p. If p is derived from a probability model and there is a background model for which the ...

This paper presents important new findings about the impact of the TAK-003 vaccine against dengue based on a convincing reanalysis of trial data. The results corroborate those of the original trial ...

We consider dependent nonparametric models for related random probability distributions. For example, the random distributions might be indexed by a categorical covariate indicating the treatment ...

Computer scientists have developed what they believe to be the first data-based answer to how long it will take for a house to sell. Their machine-learning solution innovatively draws upon methodology ...

The probability model, which incorporates a variety of factors ranging from housing permits and consumer survey data to the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, is now flashing a 38% ...

This adjustment was performed by swapping out the part of an LLM that encodes a word’s position for one encoding a person’s ...