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Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Quantitative Finance Program Director, at Stevens Inst. of Technology This is not a new diagnosis. There is today a hapless ...

The U.S. economy is likely already in a recession, masked by AI-driven capex and delayed official recognition by the NBER. The Leading Economic Index and jobs data are flashing clear recession signals ...

The AI-driven capex boom by hyperscalers has delayed a recession despite aggressive Fed tightening and historic yield curve inversion. Tech capex growth is at three-decade highs, but free cash flow is ...

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“U.S. Economic Growth Expected to Flatline in 2025. Tariffs Are the Main Reason.” – Barron’s (April 15, 2025) “If they don’t change the tariffs, it’s going to be an extinction-level, ...

Economists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data — but acknowledge they aren’t sure how long. Credit...Photo Illustration by ALVARO DOMINGUEZ; PHOTOS VIA ...