Treasury yield curve outlook: 3‑month T‑bill most likely 1–2% in 10 years; 2y/10y spread turns positive. See inversion odds ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I write about investment strategies to build generational wealth. A quietly steepening European yield curve signals opportunity ...

Shorter-term US Treasury yields have fallen, while yields on longer-dated bonds could remain elevated, thanks to the threat of higher inflation and investor concerns surrounding the federal deficit.