Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide ...

Treasury yield curve outlook: 3‑month T‑bill most likely 1–2% in 10 years; 2y/10y spread turns positive. See inversion odds ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow's book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market's expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...

So, you’re trying to figure out what’s going on with the 10 year bond yield chart and what it might mean for 2026? It’s a bit ...

The “experts” talk about how the U.S. Treasury Curve is currently “inverted.” What does that mean, and should it matter to lenders? The fact is, the yield curve (a graphical representation of yields, ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

The yield curve is an important barometer of economic health and market sentiment within the fixed-income space. While professionals use it to interpret expectations around future interest rates, ...

Earlier this year I wrote the article, “Does An Inverted Yield Curve Mean I Should Get Out Of The Markets?” in which I made these important points: Any indicator which can be manipulated by the ...

A version of this article was published in the November 2015 issue of Morningstar ETFInvestor. Download a complimentary copy of ETFInvestor here. Flaw of Averages Duration, by itself, is a crude ...

An inverted yield curve indicates short-term rates exceed long-term, suggesting economic caution. Historically, consistent negative spreads on this curve have preceded recessions. Investors might ...

The yield curve has inverted before every U.S. recession since 1975, although it sometimes happens months or years before the recession starts. We analyze here how successful the inverted yield curve ...