Simulations using a Phillips curve-type relationship provide insights into the importance of demand versus supply for ...

Central banks have a responsibility to share information in ways that improve the public’s understanding. This communication must be consistent enough that people can follow, and dynamic enough that ...

The COVID-19 pandemic upended housing markets. This blog post launches an interactive chart that accompanies our research ...

11. Several central banks have started using scenarios in their communication with the public, including the Bank of Canada ...

The fraction of men working in the United States has declined consistently since the 1950s. This has contributed to slower labor force growth and resulted in considerable gaps between labor force ...

President Daly joined co-anchors Morgan Brennan and Jon Fortt and senior economics reporter Steve Liesman on Closing Bell: ...

John G. Fernald is an Economist Emeritus and former senior policy advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and a professor of economics at INSEAD.

Sylvain Leduc is executive vice president and director of Economic Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Zheng Liu is a vice president and director of the Center for Pacific Basin Studies in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

The Phillips curve plays a central role in the macroeconomics literature. However, there is little consensus on the forcing variable that drives inflation in the model, i.e., on the appropriate ...

This site presents a real-time, quarterly series on total factor productivity (TFP) for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization – labor effort and capital’s workweek.

Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc Working Papers The 2025 Trade War: Dynamic Impacts Across U.S. States and the Global Economy. 2025-09 | with Rodriguez-Clare and Vasquez | April 2025. abstract. We use ...