Free Photo Think back to ancient leaders who looked to the stars or the flight patterns of birds just to predict the future.

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Writes about the future of finance and technology, follow for more. Joint probability teaches us to calculate combined outcomes.

Discover how probability distribution methods can help predict stock market returns and improve investment decisions. Learn ...

“One of the basic axioms of the rational theory of decision under uncertainty is Savage’s (1954) sure-thing principle (STP). It states that if prospect x is preferred to y knowing that Event A ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

The mathematician Daniel Litt has driven social media users to distraction with a series of simple-seeming but counterintuitive probability puzzles. In late January, Daniel Litt posed an innocent ...

Prediction markets have emerged as a fascinating frontier, inviting participants to speculate on the outcomes of future events. Spearheading this innovation, financial technology giant Robinhood has ...