Whenever I update The Capital Spectator Economic Trend Index (CS-ETI), as I did last week, someone usually asks how to interpret the data. In particular, how should we translate CS-ETI’s raw numbers ...

The search for objective analysis in the cause of making informed investment decisions is the Holy Grail of finance. Unfortunately, narrative risk continually threatens to derail us on our crucial ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Abstract I consider an ordered probit model in which some of the observations in one of the categories are missing. The model can be estimated because ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Abstract As tour-based methods for activity and travel participation patterns replace trip-based methods, time-of-day (TOD) choice modeling remains ...

The recent correction in the stock market has yet to trigger a clear recession warning for the US economy, based on a model that uses S&P 500 drawdowns. A probit-based model is currently estimating a ...