Economic conditions in the Twelfth District were mixed during the October to mid-November reporting period. Employment levels ...

The United States announced new, higher tariff rates this year. Tariffs can affect supply chains, investment, and firms’ ...

On the labor market, I don’t feel as confident we can get ahead of it. It’s vulnerable enough now that the risk is it’ll have ...

Robert G. Valletta, associate director of research and senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, ...

Central banks set policy to support the economy, provide liquidity, and promote financial stability. Modern central banking ...

In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks ...

To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on ...

Recent shifts in immigration flows have lowered the estimates of net international migration into the United States. New data indicate that net migration will be close to half a million people in 2025 ...

Findings reveal that 28% of the U.S. workforce—48.9 million people—live in a lower-income household (households with earnings ...

Bootstrap procedures for local projections typically rely on assuming that the data generating process (DGP) is a finite order vector autoregression (VAR), often taken to be that implied by the local ...

Appropriately adjusting recent labor market data shows that the growth in labor supply has slowed at the same pace as payroll ...

The U.S. economy has remained remarkably resilient this year, navigating uncertainty, changes in government policy, including tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and taxes, an AI-driven technology ...