The inverted Bund yields continued this week with the negative 2-year/10-year yield spread at negative 42.2 basis points. As a result, today’s simulation shows that the probability of negative spreads ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow's book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market's expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...

David Harper is the CEO and founder of Bionic Turtle. He is also a published author with a popular YouTube channel on expert finance topics. Probability distributions help investors model uncertainty ...