Simulations using a Phillips curve-type relationship provide insights into the importance of demand versus supply for ...

Central banks have a responsibility to share information in ways that improve the public’s understanding. This communication must be consistent enough that people can follow, and dynamic enough that ...

Monetary policy in the United States is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a decisionmaking body that includes regional representation. Evidence shows that the economic conditions ...

Working Papers Pulled Out or Pushed Out? Declining Male Labor Force Participation 2025-07 | with Bengali, Duzhak, and Zhao | April 2025 abstract The fraction of men working in the United States has ...

Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc | SSRN Working Papers Snow Belt to Sun Belt Migration: End of an Era? 2024-21 | with Wilson | July 2024 abstract Internal migration has been cited as a key channel by ...

John G. Fernald is an Economist Emeritus and former senior policy advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and a professor of economics at INSEAD.

Mary C. Daly is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In that capacity, she serves the Twelfth Federal Reserve District in setting monetary policy. Prior ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The Treasury yield premium model by Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch (CR) decomposes the nominal yield curve into three ...

Temporary layoffs accounted for essentially the entire increase in unemployment to its historically high rate in April 2020. Although the rate has come down since its peak, unemployment remains well ...

President Daly joined co-anchors Morgan Brennan and Jon Fortt and senior economics reporter Steve Liesman on Closing Bell: ...

Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes) Phillips Meets Beveridge Journal of Monetary Economics 148 Supplement (103660), November 2024 | with Shapiro abstract The Phillips curve plays a ...

Profiles: Google Scholar Working Papers The Crowding-In Effects of Local Government Debt in China 2024-35 | with X. Li, Peng, and Xu | November 2024 abstract We study how changes in the composition of ...