The United States announced new, higher tariff rates this year. Tariffs can affect supply chains, investment, and firms’ ...

We show that the underlying source of inflation impacts financial market perceptions of the persistence of monetary policy ...

To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on ...

Economic conditions in the Twelfth District were mixed during the October to mid-November reporting period. Employment levels ...

The SF Fed engages with businesses and communities across the region to gather real-time information on local economic ...

Bootstrap procedures for local projections typically rely on assuming that the data generating process (DGP) is a finite order vector autoregression (VAR), often taken to be that implied by the local ...

Internal migration has been cited as a key channel by which societies will adapt to climate change. We show in this paper that this process has already been happening in the United States. Over the ...

We identify corporate commitments for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions—green pledges—from news articles using a large language model. About 8% of publicly traded U.S. companies have made green ...

We document evidence of a U-shaped relationship between financial development and the adjustments of foreign exchange (FX) reserve holdings in response to a U.S. interest rate increase. Countries with ...

Temporary layoffs accounted for essentially the entire increase in unemployment to its historically high rate in April 2020. Although the rate has come down since its peak, unemployment remains well ...

Asymmetries play an important role in many macroeconomic models. We show that assumptions on household and firm expectations play a key role in determining the effects of these asymmetries on ...

On the labor market, I don’t feel as confident we can get ahead of it. It’s vulnerable enough now that the risk is it’ll have ...