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软件行业正处在一个奇怪的转折点上。AI 编程已经从增强型的自动补全发展成了能够自主执行开发任务的智能代理。曾经推动科技行业招聘热潮的经济繁荣已经让位于效率至上的要求：企业现在往往更倾向于盈利而非增长，更倾向于经验丰富的员工而非应届毕业生，更倾向于组建配备更好工具的小团队。

但悲观情景的一个长期风险常常被忽视：今天的初级开发者，就是 5 到 10 年后的高级工程师和技术领导者。如果完全切断人才培养管道，最终会造成领导力真空。行业老兵将这种现象称为缓慢衰退，一个停止培养接班人的生态系统。