The entropy score of an observed outcome that has been given a probability forecast p is defined to be -log p. If p is derived from a probability model and there is a background model for which the ...

The method, called Verbalized Sampling (VS), helps models like GPT-4, Claude, and Gemini produce more diverse and human-like ...

We consider dependent nonparametric models for related random probability distributions. For example, the random distributions might be indexed by a categorical covariate indicating the treatment ...

Computer scientists have developed what they believe to be the first data-based answer to how long it will take for a house to sell. Their machine-learning solution innovatively draws upon methodology ...

The probability model, which incorporates a variety of factors ranging from housing permits and consumer survey data to the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, is now flashing a 38% ...