Impact: The US falls into recession, while Europe is less affected. The Fed cuts rates more aggressively.

Our safe call is that Kazakhstan will face slower GDP growth and faster inflation. The riskier one is that Uzbekistan will ...

While Treasuries love rate cuts, they won't like them much given this cocktail. Here, there is a material risk that finally ...

While recent trade agreements signal a de-escalation in tensions, they offer limited assurance that export growth will remain ...

Politics is the biggest risk for UK bond markets in 2026.

We are mildly bearish on the dollar into 2026 as the Fed brings the policy rate down to neutral. We see risks skewed to the ...

Tech-related investment continues to surge as America seeks to “win” the AI race, driven by both perceived economic and ...

It is remarkable how resilient the global economy has proven to be despite the huge geopolitical shifts and tensions 2025 ...

A greater number of work days will lift 2026 GDP; we forecast 1.2% growth. Inflation disappointed at 2.2% in November, with ...

Europe is significantly lagging in the global race for artificial intelligence development. The continent hosts only a ...

With rate cuts nearing their end in 2026, and some central banks already done, here’s our interest rate outlook for the year ...

If the court rules against the tariffs, the US government may revert to more sectoral tariffs. These could do more harm not ...